Opinion Polls Put Marine Le Pen Ahead in France’s 2027 Presidential Race Despite Conviction

PARIS: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen remains the frontrunner for France’s 2027 presidential election despite her recent embezzlement conviction, according to new opinion polls released after an appeals court upheld her guilty verdict while allowing her to remain eligible to contest the election.

The latest Ifop and Toluna Harris Interactive surveys show Le Pen leading the first round of voting with around 36% support, significantly ahead of her closest rivals, none of whom currently exceed 19%. The polls also suggest she would narrowly defeat former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe in a projected runoff and comfortably outperform left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Pollsters cautioned, however, that the figures reflect current voter intentions rather than a prediction of the final election outcome.

Le Pen announced her candidacy shortly after a Paris appeals court upheld her conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds but reduced the length of her ban from holding public office, enabling her to seek the presidency while she appeals to France’s highest court. The appeal temporarily suspends enforcement of elements of her sentence, including electronic monitoring.

Despite her strong polling position, the legal case continues to shape public opinion. An Elabe survey found that about 70% of respondents reject Le Pen’s claims of innocence, while nearly one-third of supporters of her party, the National Rally, expressed reservations about her candidacy because of the conviction.

Political analysts say Le Pen’s continued popularity reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction with France’s traditional political establishment, concerns over immigration, and the fragmentation of centrist and left-wing parties. At the same time, the outcome of her appeal before the Court of Cassation could still influence the final stages of the presidential campaign.

France’s presidential election is scheduled to take place in April and May 2027, with President Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term.