Centrist Infighting Raises Prospect of Le Pen–Mélenchon Runoff in France’s Presidential Race

Paris: Rivalries among centrist contenders in France’s presidential race are fragmenting the mainstream vote and increasing the likelihood of a second-round runoff between far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Opinion polls ahead of next April’s presidential election indicate that Le Pen is almost certain to reach the May runoff, while Mélenchon has consistently edged ahead of mainstream candidates.

Centre-right Édouard Philippe, a former prime minister under President Emmanuel Macron, has so far been regarded as the centre’s leading standard-bearer. However, members of Macron’s camp and political analysts say his polling has been undermined by a lacklustre campaign, voter fatigue as Macron’s two terms draw to a close, a volatile social and security climate, and challenges from within his own political camp.

“There’s panic on board because there was no scenario planned for this. They hadn’t anticipated the cataclysm under way,” said Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, a political communications specialist at Sciences Po.

Philippe has also drawn criticism over several awkward remarks, including a suggestion on a podcast that a newly elected president should ideally have three months to rest before taking office. Analysts say he is struggling to connect with voters amid rising political tensions. “The terrible thing is that he isn’t cutting through,” Moreau-Chevrolet told Reuters, describing a sense of “dilettantism” within the campaign.

Philippe and Attal Locked in Rivalry

The growing anxiety has sharpened tensions between Philippe and his principal rival, Gabriel Attal, also a former prime minister, as the two vie over which of them should step aside in favour of a single centrist ticket.

An IFOP-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro showed Philippe’s support falling to 15 percent, a six-point decline since September, placing him below Mélenchon at 16.5 percent, a level sufficient to qualify for a runoff against Le Pen. Attal stood at 13 percent, trailing both Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann, a mainstream centre-left candidate.

Facing pressure from lawmakers in his camp to abandon his presidential ambitions and back Philippe, Attal frustrated many of Macron’s allies this week by reviving the idea of a broad centrist primary. Critics argue the proposal risks deepening divisions at a time when moderates can least afford them. Nevertheless, as leader of Macron’s Renaissance party, Attal retains significant leverage through his control of the party’s finances.

Fragmentation Across the Political Centre

“It’s catastrophic,” said Jean-Baptiste Moreau, a former lawmaker from Macron’s camp. “They are attacking one another in the media and they are both collapsing in the polls. We’re heading straight towards an RN-LFI second round,” he said, referring to Le Pen’s National Rally and Mélenchon’s France Unbowed. “In the current state of opinion, I don’t see how we avoid it.”

The fragmentation extends beyond the Philippe–Attal dispute. On the centre-left, Glucksmann has gained momentum after winning the Socialist primary, while on the right, former interior minister Bruno Retailleau and David Lisnard, the free-market mayor of Cannes, are competing for the same moderate electorate.

Philippe’s supporters insist that reports of his political demise are premature. Laurent Marcangeli, a member of Philippe’s Horizons party, acknowledged recent setbacks but maintained that the former prime minister remains the only centrist with a realistic path to the runoff. “He’s still in the race for the second round and to prevent a Le Pen-Mélenchon duel,” he said, noting that Attal had fallen to single digits in some polls.

Calls for a Unified Candidate

Some of Macron’s allies are openly questioning whether either man should continue, arguing that any association with Macron, who is ending his second term with record-low popularity, will weigh heavily on a centrist candidate.

“The two of them are collapsing,” said Perrine Goulet, a lawmaker from Macron’s ally MoDem. “Any candidate who has been in a Macron government is going to be struggling.”

With Le Pen and Mélenchon consolidating support at opposite ends of the political spectrum, Goulet urged moderates to set aside personal ambitions and unite behind a single contender capable of drawing support from Glucksmann’s voters through to Retailleau’s. “We’re calling on everyone to put their egos aside and find the best candidate,” she said. “If we keep Glucksmann on one side, Retailleau on the other, Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, we’ll end up with an LFI-RN second round. The danger is simply too great.”