Signs of Discontent Emerge in Netanyahu’s Northern Stronghold Ahead of Israel’s Election

KIRYAT SHMONA: In Kiryat Shmona, Israel’s northernmost city and a longtime bastion of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, some voters are now openly questioning their loyalty. Three years of conflict with Hezbollah have left the city partly empty and many residents frustrated as Israelis prepare to vote on Tuesday, October 27.

Likud has traditionally dominated the city. In the 2021 and 2022 elections, about half of local voters backed the party, roughly double its share nationwide, according to Central Elections Committee figures. Even a modest decline in support here and in other traditional strongholds could matter in a tight race. Such a shift could help Netanyahu’s main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, or it could strengthen far-right parties likely to back Netanyahu but demand greater influence in a future coalition.

The city of about 22,000 people was evacuated for more than a year along with dozens of border communities. Hezbollah began firing on northern Israel after the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the evacuation lasted until a ceasefire was reached in late 2024. Netanyahu said at the time that Hezbollah had been subdued. That claim lost credibility for some residents when Hezbollah missiles resumed in March, after Israel and the United States launched their war on Iran.

Since 2023, Israel has carried out a bombing campaign in Lebanon and invaded twice. More than 4,000 Lebanese have been killed, an estimated one million people have been displaced, and Israeli troops now occupy part of southern Lebanon. The occupation has reduced Hezbollah fire but not ended it. Lebanese army efforts to push the group out of the south have made little progress.

Local authorities say nearly 80 percent of residents have returned, but residents put the figure closer to half. Many shops in the commercial center remain closed.

Some lifelong Likud voters say they are changing their vote. Eti Ben Shabat, 64, who had always voted with her family for Likud, said she now supports Eisenkot. She cited Netanyahu’s unkept promises on northern security and his ongoing corruption trial. Nissan Zeevi, a longtime Likud voter from a neighbouring town who founded the security advocacy group Lobby 1701, is now running for parliament with the opposition Beyachad party. He accuses the government of abandoning the north and says Netanyahu should make way for new leadership after two decades.

Others remain firmly behind the prime minister. Sami Malul, a former Likud city councillor and acting mayor, defended the government’s handling of the war and the evacuation. He said the city had faced attacks since its founding and Netanyahu should not be blamed.

Polling suggests a wider regional shift. A survey conducted this month for Agam Labs at the Hebrew University found Netanyahu’s support across northern Israel at about 17 percent, down from about 29 percent before the 2022 election. Agam Labs director Nimrod Nir said disaffected Likud voters are likely to move to hardline parties such as Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party rather than to the centre.

Netanyahu made a brief campaign stop in Kiryat Shmona on Tuesday, visiting a high school and a university at events closed to the public. Residents say no candidate has presented a concrete plan for dealing with Hezbollah. The city’s population is largely Mizrahi Jewish, and support for Likud there has long been tied to community identity as much as ideology, which keeps many residents from saying publicly how they plan to vote.