English Councils Warn of “Catastrophic” £10bn SEND Debt as Demand for Support Surges

London: Local authorities in England have warned that debts linked to special educational needs and disability (SEND) provision are on course to reach a record £10 billion within the next 18 months, raising the prospect of councils being pushed into effective bankruptcy unless the government guarantees future support.

The forecasts, published on Tuesday by the County Councils Network (CCN), indicate that despite the government recently clearing more than £5 billion in historic council SEND debts, a sharp rise in requests for support means authorities expect to have re-accrued that amount by April and to have doubled it by 2028.

The increase is being driven by a rapid acceleration in applications for education, health and care plans (EHCPs), legal documents agreed between local authorities and families that set out the support required for children and young people up to the age of 25 with conditions such as speech and learning difficulties, autism or ADHD. The plans provide access to additional funding or places in special schools. The surge is thought to partly reflect efforts by parents and schools to secure formal support before the government’s planned reforms to SEND provision take effect.

The number of young people with EHCPs reached 718,000 in January, a rise of 12.5 percent over the previous 12 months and the largest annual increase since the plans were introduced in 2014. Official data show a further 1.3 million young people have identified special needs. Many councils anticipate double-digit annual increases over the next three years, with several projecting that nearly one in ten pupils could hold an EHCP by 2029.

The government-commissioned Fonagy report, published last week, concluded that the rise in mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions was genuine and a source of distress to many affected, but warned that the resulting demand for support would be unsustainable without new approaches to managing pressure on public services. The report found that growth in EHCPs had substantially outpaced the education system’s capacity to respond, noting that 94 percent of the 105,300 statutory assessments carried out in 2024 resulted in a plan being awarded.

The CCN stressed that the overspending was not the fault of councils and called on ministers to guarantee future SEND debts incurred by local authorities in meeting their legal duties. Linden Kemkaran, the network’s SEND spokesperson, said: “These deficits have not accumulated because councils have chosen to spend recklessly: they are the result of having to meet rapidly growing statutory demand, which has only intensified this year, without funding keeping pace.”

She warned that taxpayers and local communities would ultimately bear the consequences if councils were left carrying billions of pounds in SEND debt, forcing difficult choices over frontline services. “As well as councils absorbing skyrocketing costs, children and young people will face increasingly long waits for support and educational outcomes will continue to flatline,” she added, urging new ministers to provide certainty that the full package of reforms would be delivered.

Under a special “override” arrangement with the Treasury, accumulated SEND deficits are currently kept off council balance sheets. The arrangement is due to expire in April 2028, when councils say the debts returning to their books could threaten their solvency. Ministers have agreed to cover 90 percent of the SEND debts accumulated by England’s top-tier councils up to March 2026, but have previously said future support would be “appropriate and proportionate” and “not unlimited.”

The CCN said anything less than a commitment to pay down 90 percent of future SEND debt would amount to a “financial catastrophe,” adding that some authorities would struggle to remain solvent even if left with just 10 percent of their deficits. Internal council reports show several authorities forecasting overspends exceeding £100 million in 2026-27 alone, with Hampshire County Council projecting a £200 million deficit this year. Surrey, East Sussex, Kent, Worcestershire and Norfolk county councils are among others facing significant shortfalls.

Owen Mapley, Chief Executive of the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, said the continued escalation of SEND deficits “exposes a serious failure to align statutory responsibilities with funding levels,” noting that local government finance officers had warned of the disconnect for years.

The government’s reforms aim to gradually replace the current system with a more inclusive model of SEND support within mainstream schools, which in principle would reduce the need for EHCPs.

A government spokesperson said: “We inherited a SEND system under immense strain, and have always recognised that both deficits and EHCP applications will continue to rise before our reforms are fully rolled out.” The spokesperson added that, alongside grants covering 90 percent of council deficits, the government was investing billions to ensure early access to specialists such as speech and language therapists. “Fixing the SEND system will take time and councils will need further support with deficits, so we will set out the details before March 2028.”