UK Inflation Rises to 3.5 Percent as Middle East Conflict Pushes Up Fuel Prices

London: UK inflation rose more than expected in September, reaching its highest level in almost a year as the conflict in the Middle East continued to push up petrol and diesel prices, according to official figures released on Wednesday.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the Consumer Prices Index rose by 3.5 percent in the 12 months to September, up from 3.1 percent in August. It is the highest annual rate since October 2025 and above the 3.4 percent most economists had forecast.

Transport, and motor fuels in particular, made the largest upward contribution. Average petrol and diesel prices hit their highest level in four years in September, with diesel at its most expensive since July 2022. Annual transport inflation rose to 6.6 percent from 4.6 percent the previous month. Fuel prices have climbed steadily since the war involving Iran began on February 28, as tighter global oil supplies drove up the cost of producing petrol and diesel.

ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said inflation had risen notably in September, mainly because of higher fuel costs. Airfares, computer games and live events also contributed.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, rose to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent. Month on month, consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent, after a 0.5 percent increase in August.

The figures move inflation further above the Bank of England’s 2 percent target and have strengthened expectations that interest rates could rise. The central bank’s benchmark rate currently stands at 3.75 percent.

The data comes a week before the government presents its autumn budget and as UK public sector net debt has passed £3 trillion. Higher living costs and pressure on the public finances are expected to weigh on the Chancellor’s budget decisions.